Putin’s War with Ukraine: Voices of CNS Experts on the Russian Invasion

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Monument to Bohdan Khmelnitsky with St. Sophia Cathedral in the background in Kyiv, Ukraine (Src: Shutterstock)

Introduction

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has set in motion a catastrophic war, the consequences of which are already tragic. As with all wars, this one also will have many unintended consequences, including with respect to nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, deterrence, disarmament, and risk reduction.

Consistent with the CNS mission of promoting nonproliferation education and analysis, CNS has launched a series of webinars about the nuclear challenges and risks that have arisen as a result of this unfolding crisis. Links the recordings of prior webinars are provided below.

Additionally, this portal provides a compendium of CNS expert analysis and commentary on the war with a particular focus on its nuclear ramifications. It also will provide relevant educational materials for both an expert and more general audience.

Archived Content from 2022

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CNS Webinar Series: Nuclear Threats and the War in Ukraine

Watch a series of CNS webinars about the nuclear challenges and risks that have arisen as a result of this unfolding crisis.

• The War in Ukraine: Implications for the Use and Proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapons

  
  April 25, 2022
  In the fourth episode of the series, a group of experts from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, and King’s College London discuss the prospects of Russia using biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine. The experts also discuss how various misinformation campaigns weaken the nonproliferation regime and current international treaties.

• The War in Ukraine and the Future of Arms Control

  
  March 25, 2022
  In the third episode of the Nuclear Threats and the War in Ukraine, Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London and Ms. Sarah Bidgood, Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), discuss the future of arms control. The discussion is moderated by CNS founder and director Dr. William Potter. Ms. Bidgood wrote a recent article in Foreign Policy about the real possibility of a new nuclear arms race.

• The War in Ukraine and Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use

  
  March 3, 2022
  Three distinguished scholars discuss the risk that nuclear weapons could be used in the context of the war in Ukraine and the likely impact of the war on the international nonproliferation regime and national decisions to forego nuclear weapons.

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• The Chornobyl Exclusion Zone: Nuclear Safety and Security in Time of War

  
  March 1, 2022
  Features speaker Kateryna Pavlova, Head of International Department and Public Relations, State Agency of Ukraine on Exclusion Zone Management, former Head of State Agency on Exclusion Zone Management.

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Educational Resources

Papers

• The Finger on the Button
  Authorizing and executing launch in nuclear-armed states.
  — A CNS Occasional Paper by Jeffrey Lewis and Bruno Tertrais
• Export Control and Emerging Technology Control in an Era of Strategic Competition
  This paper provides an overview of changes taking place in relation to export controls, particularly from a US perspective.
  — A CNS DC Nonpro Notes paper by Ian Stewart

Twitter Threads

• Amid fears that Russia might stage false-flag chemical/bio attack in Ukraine: Some background readings that might be useful
  March 11, 2022
  — Hanna Notte • @HannaNotte
• Identifying the lies of Russian media by exposing satellite imagery of Russian forces being moved to Ukraine’s borders.
  February 23, 2022
  — Jeffrey Lewis • @ArmsControlWonk
• What would Russia’s break with the West mean for nuclear arms control?
  February 14, 2022
  — Hanna Notte • @HannaNotte
• Geolocation Belarus nuclear weapons storage sites
  February 8, 2022
  — Michael Duitsman • @DuitsyWasHere
• Clearing misinformation regarding nuclear weapons that were in Ukraine in 1994 and the decision to return them to Russia
  February 25, 2022
  — Jon Wolfsthal • @JBWolfsthal
• Radiological threats of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine
  February 25, 2022
  — Joshua Pollack • @Joshua_Pollack
• Risk of nuclear escalation due to the invasion
  February 27, 2022
  — Ian Stewart • @ian_j_stewart

Other Links

• Around the halls: Implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
  Brookings experts analyze the implications of the invasion, for Europe, Russia, international order, U.S. foreign policy, and much more, and offer policy recommendations for the United States, European, and other governments.
  — The Brookings Institution

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CNS in the Media

• February 14, 2024: “Russia’s Dangerous New Friends How Moscow Is Partnering With the Axis of Resistance” Hanna Notte in Foreign Affairs
• January 24, 2024: Russia’s Growing Support for Iran and North Korea Hanna Notte on the podcast ‘Thinking the Unthinkable’ for War on the Rocks
• November 20, 2023: “CNS International Advisory Council Meeting Focuses on Nonproliferation Risks of AI and the War in Ukraine” CNS
• November 11, 2023: In the News: What Does the Israel-Gaza Conflict Mean for Russia and Ukraine? Hanna Notte in Middlebury News
• November 9, 2023: “Russia Using Israel-Hamas War To Push Anti-West Narrative, Analysts Say” Hanna Notte in themedialine
• November 9, 2023: “Podcast: What Does Russia Stand to Gain From the Israel-Hamas War?” Hanna Notte in CARNEGIEpolitika
• November 7, 2023: “Israeli Official’s Nuclear Bomb Suggestion Enrages Russia” Nikolai Sokov in Newsweek
• October 23-30, 2023: “Russia Analytical Report” Hanna Notte in Russia Matters
• October 26, 2023: “Putin Is Getting What He Wants” Hanna Notte in The New York Times
• October 19, 2023: Where Does Russia Stand on the Israel-Hamas War?, Hanna Notte for Foreign Policy
• October 18, 2023: New Global Divisions on View as Biden Goes to Israel and Putin to China, Hanna Notte quoted in the New York Times
• October 18, 2023: Israel-Hamas War Creates Prospects, Problems For Russia As It Invades Ukraine And Seeks Clout In Mideast” Hanna Notte in RadioFreeEurope
• October 17, 2023: Europe, Russia, and the Conflict in Gaza, Hanna Notte appeared on CNAS’ Brussels Sprouts podcast
• October 17, 2023: What Putin Stands to Gain From Israel-Hamas War” Hanna Notte in FP
• October 13, 2023: Putin is ready to take advantage of Israel-Gaza war, says Steve Rosenberg” Hanna Notte in BBC
• October 11, 2023: “Russia: A Global Outcast or Still a Desirable Partner?” Hanna Notte in a panel at the Belgrade Security Conference
• October 10, 2023: “Did Russia Have A Hand In The Hamas Attack?” Hanna Notte in WORLDCRUNCH
• October 10, 2023: “What the Israel-Gaza conflict means for Ukraine” Hanna Notte in BBC Ukrainecast with Frank Gardner
• October 09, 2023: Zelenskyy tells NATO Russia and Hamas are ‘same evil,’ while Putin stays silent about Israel attack” Hanna Notte in DAILY KOS
• October 9, 2023:  “What Role Does Russia Have To Play In Hamas’s Invasion Of Israel? Q&A With Expert Hanna Notte” Hanna Notte in RFE/RL
• October 07, 2023: “No signs of any imminent nuclear tests at Novaya Zemlya” Thomas Nilsen in The Barents Observer
• September 22, 2023: “Exclusive: Satellite images show increased activity at nuclear test sites in Russia, China and US” Jeffrey Lewis in CNN
• August 15, 2023: “In Search of Resolution” Elena Sokova in kpbs
• July 26, 2023: “Bluffing or not, Putin’s declared deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus raises tensions” Miles Pomper in abc news
• July 19, 2023: ‘Whither Diplomacy?” Nomsa Ndongwe in Perry World House
• July 18, 2023: “The West Cannot Cure Russia’s Nuclear Fever” Hanna Notte in War on the Rocks
• July 10, 2023: “The evolution of Russia’s relations with the West: A conversation with Hanna Notte” Hanna Notte in CIVILNET
• July 10, 2023: “Ukrainian minister says he fears Russia has ‘no red lines’ to prevent attacks on nuclear plant” Jeffrey Lewis in ABC News
• June 30, 2023: “Satellite imagery shows what could be Wagner’s future camp in Belarus” Jeffrey Lewis in The Washington Post
• May 4, 2023: “Has Vladimir Putin Destroyed the Delicate Nuclear Order?” Siegfried Hecker interviewed in Der Spiegel
• April 4, 2023: “Stationierung von Nuklearwaffen in Belarus: „Das Ziel für einen russischen Atomschlag wäre Polen“” CNS in Tagespiegel
• February 22, 2023: “What happens now after Russia suspends the last nuclear arms treaty with the U.S.?” Sarah Bidgood in NPR
• February 22, 2023: “U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS CAN STILL GET WORSE” Hanna Notte in War on the Rocks
• February 22, 2023: “¿Qué significa que Rusia suspenda su participación en tratado de armas nucleares con EEUU?” Miles Pomper in Univision
• February 22, 2023: “What happens now after Russia suspends the last nuclear arms treaty with the U.S.?” Sarah Bidgood in Wabe
• February 21, 2023: “How the Ukraine war helped the arms trade go boom” Eric Woods in RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT
• February 19, 2023: “How Russia Is Still Dodging Sanctions — With Help From Companies Everywhere” Eric Woods in WorldCrunch
• February 18, 2023: “The post-Cold War era is gone, a new arms race has arrived” Decker Eveleth in The Times of India
• February 16, 2023: “Up for debate: Would doing less in Ukraine help US prepare for China challenge?” Robert Carlin mentioned in the comments section in The Washington Examiner
• February 4, 2023: [GERMAN] “Rüstungskontrolle in russischer Geiselhaft” Hanna Notte in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
• January 30, 2023: “Rosatum Ukraine War Effort Sanctions” CNS in The Washington Post
• January 24, 2023: “Hanna Notte: Russia in the Middle East After Ukraine” Hanna Notte in CSIS
• December 2, 2022: “How Bad Are Things Between Russia And The U.S.? They Can’t Even Agree To Discuss Nuclear Weapons Inspections” Nikolai Sokov in the Radio Free Europe
• November 25, 2022: “Krieg in der Ukraine: Für die Russen ist der Einsatz viel höher als in Syrien» Hanna Notte in SRF news
• November 15, 2022: “The Ukrainian War and Weapons Proliferation” Nikolai Sokov at the EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference
• November 7, 2022: “Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 31-Nov. 7, 2022” Hanna Notte in Russia Matters by Belfer Center
• November 4, 2022: “What if Russia uses a dirty bomb in Ukraine?” Sarah Bidgood in Meduza
• November 3, 2022: “Don’t Expect Any More Russian Help On The Iran Nuclear Deal” Hanna Notte in the War on the Rocks
• November 2, 2022: “Waffen für die Ukraine: Verdacht auf Schmuggel ins Ausland” Nikolai Sokov in Telepolis
• November 2, 2022: “Monterey Conversations: Science Diplomacy, Past and Present | Gordin | Hecker | Notte” Hanna Notte, Siegfried Hecker in Monterey Initiative in Russian Studies
• October 28, 2022: “Arms Control in Europe After the Russo-Ukrainian War, Really?” Hanna Notte at the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Conference
• October 27, 2022: “Russia says Ukraine is preparing a ‘dirty bomb.’ Is it true, and what does it mean?” George M. Moore in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
• October 27, 2022: “U.S. Program Aims to Keep Sensitive Weapons in Ukraine” Nikolai Sokov in The New York Times
• October 19, 2022: “What happens if the nukes fall?” Jeffrey Lewis in the Daily Mail
• October 18, 2022: “Russia is trying to steal Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Experts doubt Putin can really pull it off” John Carlson in Grid
• October 17, 2022: “Analysis: What is Russia’s policy on tactical nuclear weapons?” Jeffrey Lewis in Reuters
• October 15, 2022: “Will Putin Use Nuclear Weapons? Watch These Indicators” Jeffrey Lewis in the Atlantic
• October 13, 2022: “CYBER: Nuclear War 101” Jeffrey Lewis in CYBER podcast
• October 10, 2022: “International Security, Nuclear Weapons and the War in Ukraine” Hanna Notte, Federica Dall’Arche in Università di Roma Tre panel
• October 7, 2022: “‘Armageddon’ warning reflects Biden’s instincts about Putin” Jeffrey Lewis in the Washington Post
• October 7, 2022: “Ukraine war: Very low chance Russia will use nuclear weapons – expert” Nikolai Sokov in Euro News
• October 4, 2022: “What’s Putin thinking? Tough to know for nuclear analysts” Nikolai Sokov in the Washington Post
• September 23, 2022: “Tactical nukes: Why the world is so worried about Russia’s nuclear weapons” Sarah Bidgood in the Washington Post
• September 23, 2022: “How to Rebuild the Global Nuclear Order Post-Ukraine?” Siegfried Hecker in CNS seminar
• September 22, 2022: “What does Russia’s military escalation mean for Ukraine and its allies?” Hanna Notte in DW Inside Europe podcast
• September 22, 2022: “Krieg ist an jedem russischen Küchentisch angekommen” Hanna Notte in NTV
• September 22, 2022: “Ab heute: Referenden in den russisch-besetzten Gebieten der Ukraine” Hanna Notte in BR24 Thema Des Tages podcast
• September 21, 2022: “Why the world is so worried about Russia’s ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons” Sarah Bidgood in the Washington Post
• September 17, 2022: ““Don’t. Don’t. Don’t.” Joe Biden avisa Putin sobre uso de armas nucleares” Elena Sokova in Publico
• September 16, 2022: “How Ukraine Has Changed Russian Diplomacy” Hanna Notte in Foreign Policy
• September 14, 2022: “Azerbaijan used Russia’s weakness in Ukraine, expert says” Hanna Notte in DW
• August 30, 2022: “Russia Walks Out of NPT RevCon” Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova in Press the Button podcast
• August 29, 2022: “Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower Ep 4: Nuclear Deterrence and the Ukraine War” Hanna Notte, Sarah Bidgood, Jeffrey Lewis in Nonproliferation Monterey episode
• August 26, 2022: “Russia blocks UN nuclear treaty agreement over Zaporizhzhia clause” Sarah Bidgood in the Guardian
• August 25, 2022: “The situation at the captured Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine just got way more dangerous” Miles Pomper in the Grid News
• August 6, 2022: “An Increased Risk of Nuclear War?” Nikolai Sokov in NHK Japan
• August 6, 2022: “What we know about the blast that killed Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka” Steven De La Fuente in the Washington Post
• August 5, 2022: “Geht Russland im Ukraine-Krieg die Luft aus?” Hanna Notte in BR24
• August 4, 2022: “Russia ratchets up the danger at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant” Ferenc Dalnoki Veress in Grid
• July 22, 2022: “Vladimir Putin aims to learn from Iran how sanctions are busted” Hanna Notte in DW
• July 1, 2022: “Russia-Belarus nuclear sharing would mirror NATO’s—and worsen Europe’s security” Nikolai Sokov in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
• May 30, 2022: “Risks of Nuclear Escalation after the End of War in Ukraine” Nikolai Sokov in Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
• May 30, 2022: “Private companies track the war in Ukraine in real time” Jeffrey Lewis in PBS
• May 26, 2022: “Hanna Notte analysiert den russischen Angriffskrieg in der Ukraine” Hanna Notte in Korber Stiftung
• May 21, 2022: “Guerra nucleare, Putin testa il “Chernobyl volante: il missile che può colpire a distanza illimitata (anche gli Stati Uniti)” Jeffrey Lewis in Il Mattino
• May 18, 2022: “The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion in the Middle East and North Africa” Hanna Notte testified to the House Foreign Affairs Committee
• May 16, 2022: “3 Scenarios for How Putin Could Actually Use Nukes” George M. Moore, Avner Cohen in Politico
• May 5, 2022: “Campo de batalha da Ucrânia é assombrado pelo legado de armas químicas de Putin” Hanna Notte in Estadao
• May 4, 2022: “Ukraine’s Battlefield Is Haunted by Putin’s Chemical Weapons Legacy” Hanna Notte in The New York Times
• May 4, 2022: “Ukraine’s Battlefield Is Haunted by Putin’s Chemical Weapons Legacy” Nikolai Sokov in The New York Times
• April 29, 2022: “Expertin: Russlands Drohungen Zeichen von Verzweiflung” Hanna Notte in German TV ARD (Morgenmagazin)
• April 29, 2022: “The Impact of the Ukraine War on Missile Diplomacy in the Middle East” Hanna Notte in The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
• April 28, 2022: “Ukraine vs. Russland: Wie endet der Krieg?” Hanna Notte in “Possoch klärt” on BR24
• “A Gathering Storm, Ukraine”
  April 14, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in BACK STORY
• “Why the Ukraine war does not mean more countries should seek nuclear weapons”
  April 12, 2022
  — Jeffrey Knopf in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
• “Russia isn’t likely to use chemical weapons in Ukraine – unless Putin grows desperate”
  April 12, 2022
  — Jeffrey Knopf in The Conversation
• “Аналитик: В Сирии и Украине РФ использует пять схожих тактик”
  April 5, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in Deutsche Welle
• “STYRKES AV SANKSJONER”
  April 5, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in Klassekampen
• “Uavhengig russisk journalist: Sanksjonene får eliten til å samle seg bak Putin”
  April 5, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in Verdens Gang
• “What countries have nuclear weapons, and where are they?”
  April 1, 2022
  — Miles Pomper in The Conversation
• [VIDEO] U.N. suspends Russia from human rights body, Moscow then quits
  
  Russia continues to face consequences for its invasion of Ukraine, becoming only the second country to be suspended from the UN Human Rights Council over its alleged atrocities. Meanwhile, the US congress has voted to suspend normal trade relations with Moscow and ban imports of its oil. Dr Hanna Notte from the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies in Berlin tells The World what this means for Russia, and what their next move could be.
  April 8,2022
  — Hanna Notte on ABC News
• Аналитик: В Сирии и Украине РФ использует пять схожих тактик
  Parallels in Russian tactics in Syria vs Ukraine
  April 5, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in Deutsche Welle
• STYRKES AV SANKSJONER
  Russian domestic views on the war in Ukraine and reactions to sanctions
  April 5, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in Klassekampen
• Uavhengig russisk journalist: Sanksjonene får eliten til å samle seg bak Putin
  Russian domestic views on the war in Ukraine and reactions to sanctions
  April 5, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in Verdens Gang
• Russia promises to open humanitarian corridor in Mariupol
  March 31, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in BBC World from 5’30
• Russia’s Ukraine war builds on tactics it used in Syria, experts say
  March 31, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in The Washington Post
• “What Consequences Would Russia Face For Using Chemical Weapons?”
  March 30, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in NBC News
• Why the world is so worried about Russia’s ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons
  March 29, 2022
  — Sarah Bidgood in The Washington Post
• Setzt Russland im Krieg gegen die Ukraine syrische Söldner ein?
  March 29, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in BR24
• Will western-Russian confrontation shake the middle east?
  March 29, 2022
  — Hanna Notte in War on the Rocks
• Expert Concerned Russia Could Deploy Small, ‘Tactical’ Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine
  March 28, 2022
  — Sarah Bidgood in NBC Universal
• [VIDEO] Expert Concerned Russia Could Deploy Small, ‘Tactical’ Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine
  March 28, 2022
  — Sarah Bidgood on NBC’s XL.com
• [AUDIO] Russian-Ukraine War Updates – Miles Pomper interviewed by Morning Wave in Busan BeFM
  March 17, 2022
  — Miles Pomper interviewed by Morning Wave in Busan BeFM
• [VIDEO] Draconian sanctions ‘on the table’ if Russia violated red line: Dr. Philipp Bleek
  
  Philipp Bleek discusses the possibility of Russia using chemical weapons.
  March 16, 2022
  — Philipp Bleek on Fox Business
• This Is a Uniquely Perilous Moment
  Smaller-scale tactical nuclear weapons could bring the great powers into a brutal, deadly, and unprecedented conflict.
  March 14, 2022
  — Nikolai Sokov sited extensively in The Atlantic
• [VIDEO] Chen Kane interviewed by Deutsche Welle News TV
  March 10, 2022
  — Chen Kane interviewed by Deutsche Welle News TV
• [GERMAN][VIDEO] Russland-Expertin Hanna Notte, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, mit einer Bewertung zu Russlands Forderungen im Ukraine-Krieg
  
  March 8, 2022
  Hanna Notte interviewed by tagesschau (in German)

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• [VIDEO] Russian Troops Seize Nuclear Power Plant
  
  March 4, 2022
  William Potter interviewed by CTV News

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