Updated November 13, 2022 • Posted March 8, 2022
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Monument to Bohdan Khmelnitsky with St. Sophia Cathedral in the background in Kyiv, Ukraine (Src: Shutterstock)
Introduction
Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has set in motion a catastrophic war, the consequences of which are already tragic. As with all wars, this one also will have many unintended consequences, including with respect to nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, deterrence, disarmament, and risk reduction.
Read more…
Consistent with the CNS mission of promoting nonproliferation education and analysis, CNS has launched a series of webinars about the nuclear challenges and risks that have arisen as a result of this unfolding crisis. Links the recordings of prior webinars are provided below.
Additionally, this portal provides a compendium of CNS expert analysis and commentary on the war with a particular focus on its nuclear ramifications. It also will provide relevant educational materials for both an expert and more general audience.
Latest Content
- Why the world must protect nuclear reactors from military attacks. Now.
While Russia’s actions at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have received condemnation, its attacks on reactors and nuclear facilities may not be illegal given the fact that no international agreement specifically addresses the issue.
December 15, 2022 - Science Diplomacy, Past and Present | Podcast
Professors Siegfried Hecker and Michael Gordin moderated by Dr. Hanna Notte
November 2, 2022 - Covering the War in Ukraine | Podcast
Clarissa Ward and Joshua Yaffa moderated by Dr. Michael Kimmage
November 9, 2022 - Podcast Appearance on the Nuclear Dynamics of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
CNS expert Josh Pollack, editor of the Nonproliferation Review, made a guest appearance on Julie McDowall’s podcast, “Atomic Hobo.”
May 23, 2022
— Josh Pollack in the Atomic Hobo podcast - The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion in the Middle East and North Africa
CNS expert Hanna Notte testifies on how the war might affect Moscow’s future interests, role and diplomacy in the region.
May 19, 2022
— Hanna Notte for the House Foreign Affairs Committee - The Impact of the Ukraine War on Missile Diplomacy in the Middle East
Russian equivocation, U.S. distraction, and Gulf Arab states’ reliance on deterrence and defense will likely undermine prospects for addressing regional missile proliferation through diplomacy.
April 29, 2022
— Hanna Notte for The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington - [VIDEO] The War in Ukraine: Implications for the Use and Proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapons
In the fourth episode of the series, a group of experts from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, and King’s College London discuss the prospects of Russia using biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine. The experts also discuss how various misinformation campaigns weaken the nonproliferation regime and current international treaties.
April 25, 2022 - Why deterring Russian use of chemical weapons is a challenge
There are limits to what the United States and NATO can threaten.
April 18, 2022
— Hanna Notte for The Washington Post - The day Middlebury graduate students detected the start of the Russia-Ukraine war
From that moment forward, all other CNS OSINT work in the office screeched to a halt. This night was the first time my work was in response to a real time crisis.
April 14, 2022
— Tricia A. White - Why the Ukraine war does not mean more countries should seek nuclear weapons
The full balance sheet of pros and cons from both Ukraine and earlier cases does not lead to a persuasive argument for nuclear proliferation.
April 12, 2022
— Jeffrey Knopf for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists - Russia isn’t likely to use chemical weapons in Ukraine – unless Putin grows desperate
There are unconfirmed reports Russia used chemical weapons in Ukraine. Syria’s chemical weapons use offers context for this tactic.
April 12, 2022
— Jeffrey Knopf for The Conversation - Export Control Dialogue in Context of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
The focus of this CNS-organized event was to promote dialogue and discussion between the government and the private sector.
April 12, 2022 - [VIDEO] U.N. suspends Russia from human rights body, Moscow then quits
Russia continues to face consequences for its invasion of Ukraine, becoming only the second country to be suspended from the UN Human Rights Council over its alleged atrocities. Meanwhile, the US congress has voted to suspend normal trade relations with Moscow and ban imports of its oil. Dr. Hanna Notte from the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies in Berlin tells The World what this means for Russia, and what their next move could be.
April 8,2022
— Hanna Notte on ABC News
View previous items…
- How the IAEA can help nuclear power plants in Ukraine’s war zone
What the agency can and cannot do to ensure the safety and security of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
March 31, 2022
— Noah Mayhew in The Bulletin. - [VIDEO] Expert Concerned Russia Could Deploy Small, ‘Tactical’ Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine
March 28, 2022
— Sarah Bidgood on NBC’s XL.com. - [VIDEO] The War in Ukraine and the Future of Arms Control
In the third episode of the Nuclear Threats and the War in Ukraine, Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London and Ms. Sarah Bidgood, Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), discuss the future of arms control. The discussion is moderated by CNS founder and director Dr. William Potter. Ms. Bidgood wrote a recent article in Foreign Policy about the real possibility of a new nuclear arms race.
March 25, 2022 - Would Vladimir Putin use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
As the war approaches Nato’s borders military officials on both sides will have to communicate closely.
March 24, 2022
— Sarah Bidgood for The New Statesman - [AUDIO] Russian-Ukraine War Updates – Miles Pomper interviewed by Morning Wave in Busan BeFM
March 17, 2022
— Miles Pomper interviewed by Morning Wave in Busan BeFM - [VIDEO] Draconian sanctions ‘on the table’ if Russia violated red line: Dr. Philipp Bleek
Philipp Bleek discusses the possibility of Russia using chemical weapons.
March 16, 2022
— Philipp Bleek on Fox Business - A New Nuclear Arms Race Is a Real Possibility
History suggests the war in Ukraine could put an end to arms control as we know it.
March 15, 2022
— Sarah Bidgood for Foreign Policy - This Is a Uniquely Perilous Moment
Smaller-scale tactical nuclear weapons could bring the great powers into a brutal, deadly, and unprecedented conflict.
March 14, 2022
— Nikolai Sokov sited extensively in The Atlantic - In the pages of the Nonproliferation Review: Russia and biological weapons
Articles analyzing Russia’s long history of fabrications about biological weapons and Russia’s own BW history.
March 11, 2022
— Articles from the CNS Nonproliferation Review - Amid fears that Russia might stage false-flag chemical/bio attack in Ukraine: Some background readings that might be useful
March 11, 2022
— Hanna Notte • @HannaNotte - Would Putin use nuclear weapons? An arms control expert explains what has and hasn’t changed since the invasion of Ukraine
So far, arms control has played its intended role of limiting the scope and violence in Ukraine.
March 10, 2022
— Miles Pomper in The Conversation - [VIDEO] Chen Kane interviewed by Deutsche Welle News TV
March 10, 2022
— Chen Kane interviewed by Deutsche Welle News TV - Russian Misinformation About Ukrainian Radiological Weapons Capabilities and Intentions
A flurry of unsubstantiated and intentionally misleading allegations began prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and continue to this date.
March 10, 2022
— by Matthew Goldenberg and William Potter - The Fallout from Russia’s Attack on Ukrainian Nuclear Facilities
Why have these civilian nuclear facilities been the object of attack, and what are the likely consequences of this high-risk military action by Moscow?
March 10, 2022
— William Potter for War on the Rocks - [GERMAN][VIDEO] Russland-Expertin Hanna Notte, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, mit einer Bewertung zu Russlands Forderungen im Ukraine-Krieg
March 8, 2022
— Hanna Notte interviewed by tagesschau (in German) - Export Control and Emerging Technology Control in an Era of Strategic Competition
This paper provides an overview of changes taking place in relation to export controls, particularly from a US perspective.
March 8, 2022
— A CNS DC Nonpro Notes paper by Ian Stewart - How international law applies to attacks on nuclear and associated facilities in Ukraine
The postwar international system will need to consider stronger legal measures and consider how to enforce such measures.
March 7, 2022
— George Moore for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists - [VIDEO] Russian Troops Seize Nuclear Power Plant
March 4, 2022
— William Potter interviewed by CTV News - [VIDEO] The War in Ukraine and Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use
Three distinguished scholars discuss the risk that nuclear weapons could be used in the context of the war in Ukraine and the likely impact of the war on the international nonproliferation regime and national decisions to forego nuclear weapons.
March 3, 2022 - [VIDEO] The Chornobyl Exclusion Zone: Nuclear Safety and Security in Time of War
Features speaker Kateryna Pavlova, Head of International Department and Public Relations, State Agency of Ukraine on Exclusion Zone Management, former Head of State Agency on Exclusion Zone Management.
March 1, 2022
CNS Webinar Series: Nuclear Threats and the War in Ukraine
Watch a series of CNS webinars about the nuclear challenges and risks that have arisen as a result of this unfolding crisis.
-
The War in Ukraine: Implications for the Use and Proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapons
April 25, 2022
In the fourth episode of the series, a group of experts from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, and King’s College London discuss the prospects of Russia using biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine. The experts also discuss how various misinformation campaigns weaken the nonproliferation regime and current international treaties. -
The War in Ukraine and the Future of Arms Control
March 25, 2022
In the third episode of the Nuclear Threats and the War in Ukraine, Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London and Ms. Sarah Bidgood, Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), discuss the future of arms control. The discussion is moderated by CNS founder and director Dr. William Potter. Ms. Bidgood wrote a recent article in Foreign Policy about the real possibility of a new nuclear arms race. -
The War in Ukraine and Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use
March 3, 2022
Three distinguished scholars discuss the risk that nuclear weapons could be used in the context of the war in Ukraine and the likely impact of the war on the international nonproliferation regime and national decisions to forego nuclear weapons.
-
The Chornobyl Exclusion Zone: Nuclear Safety and Security in Time of War
March 1, 2022
Features speaker Kateryna Pavlova, Head of International Department and Public Relations, State Agency of Ukraine on Exclusion Zone Management, former Head of State Agency on Exclusion Zone Management.
Educational Resources
Articles
- Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower: A CNS videocast series
Episode 8: Russia’s Nuclear Fever – A Conversation with Rose Gottemoeller - Podcast Appearance on the Nuclear Dynamics of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
CNS expert Josh Pollack, editor of the Nonproliferation Review, made a guest appearance on Julie McDowall’s podcast, “Atomic Hobo.” - CNS Visiting Fellows Give Perspectives as a Ukrainian and a Russian on the War in Ukraine
On May 12, 2022, CNS Visiting Fellows Valeriia Hesse and Kirill Iliin gave a talk to The Monterey Rotary Club. - The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion in the Middle East and North Africa
CNS expert Hanna Notte testifies on how the war might affect Moscow’s future interests, role and diplomacy in the region. - The Impact of the Ukraine War on Missile Diplomacy in the Middle East
Russian equivocation, U.S. distraction, and Gulf Arab states’ reliance on deterrence and defense will likely undermine prospects for addressing regional missile proliferation through diplomacy. - CNS Webinar Series: Nuclear Threats and the War in Ukraine
Watch a series of CNS webinars about the nuclear challenges and risks that have arisen as a result of this unfolding crisis. - Why deterring Russian use of chemical weapons is a challenge
There are limits to what the United States and NATO can threaten. - The day Middlebury graduate students detected the start of the Russia-Ukraine war
From that moment forward, all other CNS OSINT work in the office screeched to a halt. This night was the first time my work was in response to a real time crisis. - Why the Ukraine war does not mean more countries should seek nuclear weapons
The full balance sheet of pros and cons from both Ukraine and earlier cases does not lead to a persuasive argument for nuclear proliferation. - Russia isn’t likely to use chemical weapons in Ukraine – unless Putin grows desperate
There are unconfirmed reports Russia used chemical weapons in Ukraine. Syria’s chemical weapons use offers context for this tactic. - Export Control Dialogue in Context of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
The focus of this CNS-organized event was to promote dialogue and discussion between the government and the private sector. - Russia’s novel strategic weapons: staying ahead of the Americans?
Examining public data, declassified intelligence, and commercial satellite imagery, the authors identify drivers behind Russia’s pursuit of weapons systems. - Expert Concerned Russia Could Deploy Small, ‘Tactical’ Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine
VIDEO: CNS expert on NBC online outlet, XL, discussing Russian nuclear forces and the war with Ukraine - Would Vladimir Putin use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
As the war approaches Nato’s borders military officials on both sides will have to communicate closely. - A New Nuclear Arms Race Is a Real Possibility
History suggests the war in Ukraine could put an end to arms control as we know it. - In the pages of the Nonproliferation Review: Russia and biological weapons
Articles analyzing Russia’s long history of fabrications about biological weapons and Russia’s own BW history - Russian Misinformation About Ukrainian Radiological Weapons Capabilities and Intentions
A flurry of unsubstantiated and intentionally misleading allegations began prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and continue to this date. - Would Putin use nuclear weapons? An arms control expert explains what has and hasn’t changed since the invasion of UkraineSo far, arms control has played its intended role of limiting the scope and violence in Ukraine.
- The Fallout from Russia’s Attack on Ukrainian Nuclear Facilities
Why have these civilian nuclear facilities been the object of attack, and what are the likely consequences of this high-risk military action by Moscow? - How international law applies to attacks on nuclear and associated facilities in UkraineThe postwar international system will need to consider stronger legal measures and consider how to enforce such measures.
Papers
- The Finger on the Button
Authorizing and executing launch in nuclear-armed states.
— A CNS Occasional Paper by Jeffrey Lewis and Bruno Tertrais - Export Control and Emerging Technology Control in an Era of Strategic Competition
This paper provides an overview of changes taking place in relation to export controls, particularly from a US perspective.
— A CNS DC Nonpro Notes paper by Ian Stewart
Twitter Threads
- Amid fears that Russia might stage false-flag chemical/bio attack in Ukraine: Some background readings that might be useful
March 11, 2022
— Hanna Notte • @HannaNotte - Identifying the lies of Russian media by exposing satellite imagery of Russian forces being moved to Ukraine’s borders.
February 23, 2022
— Jeffrey Lewis • @ArmsControlWonk - What would Russia’s break with the West mean for nuclear arms control?
February 14, 2022
— Hanna Notte • @HannaNotte - Geolocation Belarus nuclear weapons storage sites
February 8, 2022
— Michael Duitsman • @DuitsyWasHere - Clearing misinformation regarding nuclear weapons that were in Ukraine in 1994 and the decision to return them to Russia
February 25, 2022
— Jon Wolfsthal • @JBWolfsthal - Radiological threats of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine
February 25, 2022
— Joshua Pollack • @Joshua_Pollack - Risk of nuclear escalation due to the invasion
February 27, 2022
— Ian Stewart • @ian_j_stewart
Other Links
- Around the halls: Implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Brookings experts analyze the implications of the invasion, for Europe, Russia, international order, U.S. foreign policy, and much more, and offer policy recommendations for the United States, European, and other governments.
— The Brookings Institution
CNS in the Media
- “A Gathering Storm, Ukraine”
April 14, 2022
— Hanna Notte in BACK STORY - “Why the Ukraine war does not mean more countries should seek nuclear weapons”
April 12, 2022
— Jeffrey Knopf in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - “Russia isn’t likely to use chemical weapons in Ukraine – unless Putin grows desperate”
April 12, 2022
— Jeffrey Knopf in The Conversation - “Аналитик: В Сирии и Украине РФ использует пять схожих тактик”
April 5, 2022
— Hanna Notte in Deutsche Welle - “STYRKES AV SANKSJONER”
April 5, 2022
— Hanna Notte in Klassekampen - “Uavhengig russisk journalist: Sanksjonene får eliten til å samle seg bak Putin”
April 5, 2022
— Hanna Notte in Verdens Gang - “What countries have nuclear weapons, and where are they?”
April 1, 2022
— Miles Pomper in The Conversation - [VIDEO] U.N. suspends Russia from human rights body, Moscow then quits
Russia continues to face consequences for its invasion of Ukraine, becoming only the second country to be suspended from the UN Human Rights Council over its alleged atrocities. Meanwhile, the US congress has voted to suspend normal trade relations with Moscow and ban imports of its oil. Dr Hanna Notte from the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies in Berlin tells The World what this means for Russia, and what their next move could be.
April 8,2022
— Hanna Notte on ABC News - Аналитик: В Сирии и Украине РФ использует пять схожих тактик
Parallels in Russian tactics in Syria vs Ukraine
April 5, 2022
— Hanna Notte in Deutsche Welle - STYRKES AV SANKSJONER
Russian domestic views on the war in Ukraine and reactions to sanctions
April 5, 2022
— Hanna Notte in Klassekampen - Uavhengig russisk journalist: Sanksjonene får eliten til å samle seg bak Putin
Russian domestic views on the war in Ukraine and reactions to sanctions
April 5, 2022
— Hanna Notte in Verdens Gang - Russia promises to open humanitarian corridor in Mariupol
March 31, 2022
— Hanna Notte in BBC World from 5’30 - Russia’s Ukraine war builds on tactics it used in Syria, experts say
March 31, 2022
— Hanna Notte in The Washington Post - “What Consequences Would Russia Face For Using Chemical Weapons?”
March 30, 2022
— Hanna Notte in NBC News - Why the world is so worried about Russia’s ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons
March 29, 2022
— Sarah Bidgood in The Washington Post - Setzt Russland im Krieg gegen die Ukraine syrische Söldner ein?
March 29, 2022
— Hanna Notte in BR24 - Will western-Russian confrontation shake the middle east?
March 29, 2022
— Hanna Notte in War on the Rocks - Expert Concerned Russia Could Deploy Small, ‘Tactical’ Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine
March 28, 2022
— Sarah Bidgood in NBC Universal - [VIDEO] Expert Concerned Russia Could Deploy Small, ‘Tactical’ Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine
March 28, 2022
— Sarah Bidgood on NBC’s XL.com - [AUDIO] Russian-Ukraine War Updates – Miles Pomper interviewed by Morning Wave in Busan BeFM
March 17, 2022
— Miles Pomper interviewed by Morning Wave in Busan BeFM - [VIDEO] Draconian sanctions ‘on the table’ if Russia violated red line: Dr. Philipp Bleek
Philipp Bleek discusses the possibility of Russia using chemical weapons.
March 16, 2022
— Philipp Bleek on Fox Business - This Is a Uniquely Perilous Moment
Smaller-scale tactical nuclear weapons could bring the great powers into a brutal, deadly, and unprecedented conflict.
March 14, 2022
— Nikolai Sokov sited extensively in The Atlantic - [VIDEO] Chen Kane interviewed by Deutsche Welle News TV
March 10, 2022
— Chen Kane interviewed by Deutsche Welle News TV - [GERMAN][VIDEO] Russland-Expertin Hanna Notte, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, mit einer Bewertung zu Russlands Forderungen im Ukraine-Krieg
March 8, 2022
Hanna Notte interviewed by tagesschau (in German)
- [VIDEO] Russian Troops Seize Nuclear Power Plant
March 4, 2022
William Potter interviewed by CTV News
Contact CNS Experts
- William Potter
CNS Founder & Director · Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies
831.647.3511 · [email protected] - Jeffrey Lewis
Director, East Asia Nonproliferation Program (EANP) · Professor
831.647.6616 · [email protected] · @ArmsControlWonk - George Moore
Scientist-in-Residence · Adjunct Professor
831.647.4613 · [email protected] · @kennmoor - Hanna Notte
Senior Research Associate, VCDNP
[email protected] · [email protected] · @HannaNotte - Nikolai Sokov
Senior Fellow, VCDNP
[email protected] - Elena Sokova
Executive Director, VCDNP
+43 (1) 236 94 82-01 · [email protected] - Noah Mayhew
Research Associate, VCDNP
+43 (1) 236 94 82-04 · [email protected] - Sarah Bidgood
Director, Eurasia Nonproliferation Program
831.647.3584 · [email protected] - Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress
Scientist-in-Residence · Adjunct Professor
831.647.4638 · [email protected] - Ian Stewart
Executive Director, Washington DC Office
[email protected] · @ian_j_stewart - Michael Duitsman
Research Associate
831.647.3559 · [email protected] · @DuitsyWasHere - Chen Kane
Director, Middle East Nonproliferation Program
202.601.2330 · [email protected] - Margarita Kalinina-Pohl
Senior Program Manager, Education Program
831.647.6540 · [email protected] - Robert Shaw
Program Director, Export Control and Nonproliferation Program (XNP) · Adjunct Professor
831.647.6576 · [email protected]
