May 10, 2018
The meeting between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been set for June 12 in Singapore.
CNS-NTI graphic shows DPRK capabilities as of February 2018 (Click for PDF version)
What can we expect from this historic summit? What effects will negotiations have on inter-Korea peace, or for the US-South Korea alliance? Is a “denuclearized” North Korea really in the cards? And if so, what does that even mean?
Perhaps most importantly: if talks fail– or if the results are misconstrued by either side– the price of failure could be war.
Analysis and Insight
The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies at Monterey offers expert analysis and leading insight into the political, diplomatic, historical, and technical aspects of the historic talks.
“Although representatives in both capitals speak about the goal of denuclearization, almost certainly they have different end-states in mind. One of the largest risks of the summit is that false expectations about what can be accomplished will lead to outrage by one or both sides, a recipe for the end of diplomacy and the resort to military action.”
CNS Director Dr. William C. Potter, one of the world’s leading experts on diplomacy and negotiation in arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament.
“While chances for a breakthrough at the summit steadily increase, the risks associated with possible failure increase as well. The main risk is the absence of a stable status quo to which the parties could return in case the summit fails. Since there was no sustained dialogue prior to the recent crisis, the consequence now is between a mutually acceptable agreement and a significant worsening of the relationship, even an increased chance for military conflict. The uncertain future of the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, the JCPOA, is likely to negatively affect the probablility of success as well.”
Dr. Nikolai Sokov, CNS Senior Fellow and former Soviet/Russia negotiator on arms control
For further commentary as the negotiations take shape, contact us. Our facilities at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey are well equipped for television and radio broadcast, and we offer a range of B-roll, graphics, and other content for print and online publications.
Recent Analysis
- Jeffrey Lewis in the New York Times on the fuzzy term “denuclearization,” and how it may be the key to avoiding nuclear war.
- Bloomberg turned to diplomacy expert Nikolai Sokov to learn which Cold War lessons could be applied to DPRK-US negotiations.
- North Korea fails to even mention the nuclear issue in their summary of the March meeting with China’s Xi Jinping, as pointed out in CNBC by Joshua H. Pollack
- Earlier, Pollack explained in the NY Daily News how the summit came to fruition.
- In the Washington Post, Jeffrey Lewis lays out what Kim wants out of a summit, and what some in the United States fear Trump will give him.
- Lewis’s initial Foreign Policy post explains that Trump’s agreeing to the meeting was the concession that Kim sought.
Technical Insight and Visuals
- B-roll videos on North Korea’s November 2017 missile test
- Interactive facilities map
- Take a virtual tour of North Korea’s nuclear-test tunnels at Punggye-ri
- DPRK ballistic missile 3D models
- Design characteristics of DPRK ballistic and cruise missiles
- North Korea missile test database
- History of DPRK’s nuclear program
For other media inquiries, contact us by email at [email protected] or Twitter at @CNS_Updates.
