Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova
April 16, 2014
View the full article in Arms Control Today:
Rough Seas Ahead: Issues for the 2015 NPT Review Conference
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon addresses the 2010 NPT Review Conference in New York.
Credit: Eskinder Debebe
The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) review cycle is entering its final year, and states parties are gathering in New York on April 22-May 9, 2014 for the third Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) session. While substantive negotiations at the PrepCom are unlikely, this is a good time for the states to take stock of key developments and begin to lay the groundwork for the next year’s Review Conference.
In the April 2014 issue of Arms Control Today, Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova reviews the main issues for the 2015 NPT Review Conference, which promises to be highly contentious. Progress on nuclear disarmament and the establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction continue to be central to a successful outcome of the next Review Conference. While there have been positive developments with regard to the Middle East conference on the zone, holding this regional meeting, in and of itself, would not guarantee a harmonious Review Conference in 2015.
Nuclear disarmament is projected to take the center stage in 2015, as tension and disagreements have been growing among NPT parties regarding the appropriate pace of, and approach to, nuclear disarmament. While the consultations among nuclear weapon states (“P5 process”) are slow to yield results, the initiative focused on the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons has gained wide support since 2010 and is transforming the NPT debate regarding disarmament.
Events in Ukraine might have far-reaching effects on the NPT regime, as Russia’s violation of the Budapest Memorandum has already prompted some observers to question the wisdom of Ukraine’s joining the NPT in 1994. Russia’s actions also call into the question the value of nuclear weapon states’ security assurances in a broader sense. States parties will have to handle this issue very carefully at the 2014 PrepCom and in the run-up to the 2015 Review Conference.
