August 7, 2024
Hanna Notte
The following is an excerpt from the Financial Times.
In light of last week’s historic US-Russian prisoner swap, one might be tempted to think that pragmatism has returned to Moscow’s foreign policy. After all, Vladimir Putin was willing to insulate a specific problem from his broader conflict with the US over Ukraine. Both sides could claim a win, showing that mutually beneficial dealmaking is possible even as bilateral relations remain at a nadir.
Freeing not just wrongfully detained US citizens, but also Russian dissidents, America sent a message that it strives for freedom and justice — and not just for its own. The Biden administration also showed both domestic and foreign audiences that it commands the loyalty of its allies. Putin got back his favourite hitman, Vadim Krasikov, alongside Russian smugglers and spies. Giving the returnees a hero’s welcome, the Kremlin telegraphed that it will fight tooth and nail for those faithfully serving the motherland on dangerous missions abroad.
Were such a heavy lift of bargaining to set off a new trend, one may well expect it to extend to the Ukrainian dossier. In recent months, Russian offensives in Ukraine have come with tremendous losses but yielded only small territorial gains. Russia’s military is struggling to meet recruitment targets. With increased western aid making it to the front, and Kamala Harris’s fiery campaign kick-off decreasing the chances of a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential elections in November, Putin may see a now-or-never opportunity to make a deal on Ukraine — or so one might argue.
Continue reading at the Financial Times.
