May 6, 2026
William Alberque, Miles Pomper, David Santoro, and Hanna Notte
The following is an excerpt from Pacific Forum.
Introduction
The report “Mitigating Miscalculation: The Role of Pre-Launch Notifications in Strategic Stability” is the first comprehensive study that explores the critical role of pre-launch notifications for ballistic missiles and space-launch vehicles in maintaining global strategic stability. As the world enters a period of renewed nuclear competition without robust bilateral arms control between the United States and Russia, the risk of misinterpreting a test launch as a nuclear first strike has increased. Pre-launch notifications serve as a vital “guardrail” by signaling that a launch is a test rather than an attack.
The report examines the historical evolution of such notifications, beginning with the foundational 1988 US-USSR Ballistic Missile Launch Agreement, which to this day remains a model for how technical risk reduction can survive extreme political tension. It details subsequent bilateral efforts, including the failed attempts to establish a Joint Data Exchange Center and a more intrusive pre- and post-launch notification system due to disputes over missile defense and trust. Other significant bilateral regimes include the India-Pakistan Pre-Notification Agreement and the 2009 Russia-China Pre-Launch Notification Agreement. At the multilateral level, the Hague Code of Conduct seeks to globalize these norms, but it is hindered by the absence of key powers like China, North Korea, and Pakistan.
A central focus of the report is China’s historically cautious and selective approach to risk reduction. While Beijing has participated in regional and bilateral agreements—such as those with Russia and India—it has resisted a formal pre-launch notification agreement with the United States, citing concerns over operational security and intelligence gathering. The report, however, notes a potentially positive shift following China’s 2024 test of an intercontinental ballistic missile over the Pacific, for which it provided notifications to “relevant countries,” including the United States.
Continue reading at Pacific Forum.
