October 3, 2025
Hanna Notte
The following is an excerpt from Foreign Affairs.
When armed factions led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad last December, many observers believed that Russia’s days in Syria were numbered. For decades, Moscow had nurtured close ties with the Assad family; less than a year ago, it bombed areas controlled by HTS. As the head of HTS, Ahmed al-Shara, took the reins in Damascus, The Economist warned that Russia’s military presence in the country was “hanging by a thread.” Russians worried, too. Shortly after Assad’s fall, Russian newspapers bemoaned the loss of a key ally in the Middle East, and military bloggers panicked over the future of Russia’s bases and outposts in the country.
Since then, however, Russia has defied expectations, holding on to its main bases on Syria’s coast—the Tartus naval facility and the Hmeimim airbase—and even entrenching itself in the country’s northeast. Russian diplomats moved quickly to engage the new rulers in Damascus, benefiting from Syrians’ perception that Russia is a great power and Shara’s desire to build positive relations with all external governments. Syria’s new leaders have, in turn, taken a constructive tone with Moscow, hoping for Russian energy, grain, friendly votes at the UN, and possibly, arms. By engaging Russia, Shara’s government also seeks to deter former Assad loyalists from rearing their heads, to warn Western states that Syria can look elsewhere for support on energy and defense, and perhaps even to limit Israeli military action within its borders.
Other interested parties want Russia to retain a modest presence in Syria, too: as different forces vie for clout, Russia has emerged as everyone’s favorite hedge. Both Israel and Turkey calculate that Russia’s influence could be leveraged to prevent the other from becoming too strong. And the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia, want Russia on their side in case the United States abandons them or Damascus tries to quash their hopes for autonomy.
Continue reading at Foreign Affairs.
