July 8, 2025
Siegfried S. Hecker and Abbas Milani
The following is an excerpt from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
A decade ago in these pages, during the deliberations that led to the Iran nuclear deal —the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)[1]—we suggested a way out of diplomatic stalemate. It was for Iran to choose a path that would benefit the people of the country and dissipate fear or need of war.[2]
The Khamenei regime refused to abandon its right to enrich uranium; such a program is necessary only if the country wants to hedge its bet to make an ostensibly peaceful program a springboard to nuclear bomb fuel. Moreover, the Iranian regime made its fiery rhetoric a hindrance to any sober discussion of enrichment by comparing enrichment to the oil industry—for a century a lifeline of the Iranian economy—and positing it as an indispensable symbol of independence. The Obama administration struck a deal and although not ideal, it extended the timeline it would take for Iran to break out and build nuclear bombs.
Now, following the extensive Israeli bombing of Iran’s nuclear complex, supplemented by American attacks on the better-protected Iranian sites, the time has come for Iran’s leaders to reconsider their past intransigent, deceptive posture and instead pursue a nuclear power program that will benefit the Iranian people. Enrichment is not and has never been the sine qua non of peaceful nuclear energy. Nor should it disingenuously be made into a symbol of progress, or independence. It is only a hedging strategy for a future bomb. During its 30-plus year pursuit of enrichment, Iran has amassed sufficient capacity for making bomb fuel, but nowhere close to the industrial-scale complex required for civilian nuclear energy.
Continue reading at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
